On of Turkey’s leading op/ed sites, affiliated with the secular/center main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), has asked various pollsters about their predictions. The pollsters are: Mehmet Ali Kulat, Chairman of MAK Consultancy; Ulaş Tol, General Director of TEAM Research, and Can Selçuki, Director of Turkey Report.
With the 2023 elections just days away, the picture is becoming clearer, with predictions that Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is ahead in the race. It is still up for debate whether the presidential election will go to a second round and who will win in parliament.
According to Kulat, if the presidential election goes to a second round, the game will be reset. In his words, “if football is played in the first round, handball will be played in the second round”.
As for the parliament, Kulat is optimistic about the opposition. He thinks that the centrist-nationalist Nation Alliance and the leftist Labor and Freedom Alliance can reach 320 seats in total.
The second pollster is Ulaş Tol, General Director of TEAM Research. According to Tol, if the votes lost by the maverick candidate, Muharrem İnce, are directed towards Kılıçdaroğlu and not to Sinan Oğan (the nationalist fourth contender), then the presidential race may be determined in the first round. Tol agrees with Kulat that “it is almost certain” the People’s Alliance will get 290 deputies elected and also that there is a possibility that with 30 more deputies from the leftist bloc, the opposition may reach a majority in parliament.
Can Selçuki, Director of Turkey Report, agrees that there is a vote shift from Muharrem İnce to Sinan Oğan. Ince’s aggressive behavior has led to a notable decline in his vote share recently.
Below are some questions for Kulat, Tol and Selçuki:
Some pollsters claim Muharrem İnce’s vote share is decreasing. Has this decline stopped, or is it continuing?
KULAT: Those who said they would vote for Muharrem İnce were “disgruntled voters.” I would like to point out the following detail: As İnce loses votes, interest in Sinan Oğan has increased from among MHP and IYI Party voters. If both Oğan and İnce receive more than 5 percent of the votes in total, the election will move to a second round, which would mean a re-setting of the game. In fact, if football is played in the first round, basketball or handball will be played in the second round.
Is it really true that there is a shift from Muharrem İnce to Sinan Oğan? In some polls, Oğan’s vote rate is higher than İnce’s.
KULAT: I don’t think this is the case, they have different “customers.” While Mr İnce’s voting base is “social democratic,” Mr Oğan’s base is more nationalistic. If there are any votes that might leave Muharrem İnce, they will go to the CHP. At least, I can say that they will not go to Mr Oğan at a significant rate.
In other words, conditions change, the cards are reshuffled, the game is re-established, it is not possible to predict that much in advance. Because we have never experienced an election that went to a second round in Turkey. There will be many new arguments that may affect the outcome of the election, including election security.
Is it certain who will win the parliament? Can the opposition win?
KULAT: Nothing is clear. But let’s say that the total number of MPs for the Nation Alliance plus the HDP (now the YSP) is likely to be around 320. If there is a big change in the coming days, the conditions also may change.
The most important reason for this is the following: Let’s say both the HDP/YSP and MHP both reach respectively 10 percent of the votes in Turkey. In this case, the MHP can get 30-40 MPs, while the HDP can get 70-80 MPs.
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Some pollsters claim Muharrem İnce’s vote share is decreasing. Has this decline stopped, or is it continuing?
TOL: We have not yet seen this point in İnce. He may fall down to around 2 percent. He may fall a little more, but he is very close to a full stop now. Because there is a group of voters who still insist on a protest vote. What is important here is that the votes that may be returned from İnce will not go to Kılıçdaroğlu, but to Oğan, so not much will change.
The second round becomes a strong probability. But, if the votes of both of them (İnce and Oğan) fall below 5 percent in total, Kılıçdaroğlu is more likely to exceed 50 percent.
İnce also received some votes from voters who support the government. He still has the potential to get votes from there. In that case, it is possible that he will turn into a candidate who benefits the opposition, rather than one who harms it
Is it really true that there is a shift from Muharrem İnce to Sinan Oğan? In some polls, Oğan’s vote rate is higher than İnce’s.
TOL: In our Istanbul survey, we saw such a tendency in more central places. But NOT in Turkey in general. Because Oğan’s voter group is more special. Their reasons for supporting Oğan are different from those who support İnce. Compared to İnce, Oğan has a higher rate of support from voters who previously supported the government. Not numerically but proportionally.
Most of İnce’s voters say they will support Kılıçdaroğlu in the second round. Some of them will also support Erdoğan. Because his voters supported İnce for the following reason: ‘I will not support the government, but I don’t like the attitude of the opposition’.
There was also a hope that İnce could get ahead of Kılıçdaroğlu in the first round. The realization that this was not realistic brought that group of voters closer to Kılıçdaroğlu.
If the election goes to the second round, how may İnce’s and Oğan’s votes be distributed?
TOL: From the beginning, between 60-70 percent of Ince voters said that they would support Kılıçdaroğlu in the second round. What is interesting here is that even though İnce’s votes have dropped, this percentage has not changed much—it is still around 6 percent. If İnce’s vote drops to around 2 percent, the percentage of those who will support Erdoğan in the second round will increase.
Oğan is less likely than İnce to endorse Kılıçdaroğlu in the second round, but his voters will support Kılıçdaroğlu more than Erdoğan in the second round.
Is it clear who will win the parliament? You say it is not clear who will gather the last deputies in certain electoral districts.
TOL: For example, Tunceli or Bayburt will elect one deputy and the first party will win. It is impossible for the situation to change there. On the other hand, there are also constituencies where it is not clear who will get the last deputy. That number is also at a level that will determine whether the People’s Alliance (ruling bloc) will win the parliamentary majority or not.
In fact, when we simulate the latest rates by projecting them to other large sample studies, they can now get 290 deputies. Therefore, even in the border, let’s say in 10 places, half a point, one point increases can carry the People’s Alliance above 300.
What if the elections go to a second round?
TOL: If the votes of İnce and Oğan do not decline and Kılıçdaroğlu fails to reach 50 percent in the first round, we will enter the second round by keeping the parliamentary picture in mind. If the People’s Alliance reaches 44 percent, and if the votes that cannot turn into MPs on this side are high, the People’s Alliance, which closed the first round with a parliamentary majority, will use this as a leverage in the second round. Of course, Kılıçdaroğlu may still win the second round, but we may see a picture that will put his job in difficulty and risk.
According to the figures you have shared and the comments, Kılıçdaroğlu seems ahead of Erdoğan, and it would not be a surprise if he wins in the first round. Accordingly, we can say that Kılıçdaroğlu is the favorite for the second round. If this is the case, why do some people in the opposition talk about the risk of Erdoğan winning in the second round?
TOL: There are two reasons. The first is the parliament… What does the second round mean? The voters cannot imagine it now. If the People’s Alliance passes 300 in the parliament, it’s already a problem for the opposition. And even if it wouldn’t be, it will be a power game and this may have an impact. We are going to an election, where a significant number of voters who tend to change their minds at the last minute, will cast a defining vote.
The second reason is that the opposition voters do not trust this government’s sense of fair play because of what has happened so far. We saw it in the Istanbul elections. There are already some statements, by some ministers.
And there are some uncertainties. For example, the fact that some of the earthquake victims have not taken their residences and there is uncertainty about whether they will go to their hometowns to vote.
The issue of whether students will be in their places of residence… Let’s say they go to the polls in the first round. We are not fully convinced how the votes abroad have changed.
When we take all this into account, we need to leave a margin so that even all these things cannot cause the election to be lost. This is why people are worried…
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Polling companies say that Muharrem İnce’s voting rate is gradually decreasing. Do you think this decline will continue?
SELÇUKİ: I think it will continue, but I don’t know if it will fall to a level that will allow the presidential election to end in the first round. We will see.
Is it true that there is a shift from Muharrem İnce to Sinan Oğan? In some polls, Oğan’s vote rate is even higher than İnce’s.
SELÇUKİ: It is true. I don’t see Oğan’s votes shifting to İnce, but according to our polls, there is a shift from İnce to Oğan, yes…
How much of a shift is there? Will this shift continue? What is the reason for this, what is the explanation?
SELÇUKİ: I honestly don’t know. What could be the explanation for this? Probably Muharrem İnce’s recent, more negative and aggressive behavior, especially after his appearance at Babala TV. I don’t know if it will continue, we will see. We are just seeing that shift. It is not easy to predict it right now.
If the election goes to the second round, how will Ince’s and Oğan’s votes be distributed?
SELÇUKİ: About half of the votes of both of them, maybe a little more, will go to Kılıçdaroğlu. However, the number of those who do not go to the polls is increasing.
How much of them will go to Erdoğan?
SELÇUKİ: 20 percent of Ince’s votes and the same percentage of Oğan’s votes…
So is it clear who will win the parliament?
SELÇUKİ: No, we cannot say anything clear about this at the moment.
These interviews were assembled from the site Politikyol, translated, shortened, and republished by FTP.
