Marco Ansaldo is an expert on Turkey, the Kurdish question, Northern Iraq, Cyprus, the Middle East and the Vatican. A scientific adviser to the Italian geopolitical magazine Limes, he also contributes to the German weekly Die Zeit and in has been a correspondent and special envoy for Repubblica. He is a consultant for LA7, Rai Radio 3 and Rai 3.
What do you expect to happen in the elections? Is there a light at the end of the tunnel? Why or why not?
I am expecting a consistent backlash for the AKP in the parliamentary vote, but a victory for President Erdoğan in the presidential confrontation—where confrontation means not exactly the vote of May 14 (and probably May 28), but a larger dispute which could occur during and after that vote. I have closely followed Erdoğan’s election campaigns since 2002, and I never saw him losing, despite a setback at the local elections in 2019. So it is difficult for me to see Erdoğan on the opposition side… Very difficult.
It is the Turkish Republic’s 100th anniversary, how can we explain why TR has tumbled into this massive crisis at every level?
Unfortunately the AKP lost its initial intention to be a real reformist party, and after some years in power became the party of the establishment. Moreover, I am not confident that the CHP and other opposition leaders can resolve this situation.
The best opposition leader could be Selahattin Demirtaş. But Erdoğan, who is the smartest politician in circulation—and not just in Turkey—understood that very well. The HDP leader remains in prison.
In addition, the world is counting on Turkey—an increasingly powerful and important country in recent years. And the world is relying as well on Erdogan’s leadership.
What do you see as the solution for a stable and peaceful Turkey, given the culture, demographic changes, and global instability? Any suggestions?
Some international analysts of Turkey hope that, after a possible victory, Erdoğan could change again and transform himself, finally, into a democratic leader with an understanding of Turkey’s problems. That he can transform Turkey into a full democracy, set up a new liberal Constitution, open up to free debate and free expression, to a new economy, to green power, and to an open internet.
Finally, the Turkish leader of the future must reconcile the different parts of the country: conservatives, republicans, nationalists, Kurds, Armenians, etc. This is necessary for a harmonious growth.
Not an easy task. But this is the road to Turkey as a bigger and more successful country on the world stage, which it has all the potential to become.
